"In the case of Egypt under Mubarak, the outbreak against his rule was preceded by a period in which modest progress was being made in Egypt's economic prospects and standard of living, due to a small amount of oil, a lot of tourism, and increasing foreign investment. This year the economy grew by a robust 6%. Ditto in Iran, where the Shah was committed to political and economic Westernization and secularization. Ditto in Russia, where Gorbachev's toppling of the Soviet regime was preceded by the Brezhnev era in which Russians were finally tasting some solid economic benefits.
Common to these cases is Toqueville's thesis of the revolution of rising expectations. Fitful and semi-effective autocratic reformers whet people's hopes for a better future, but cannot satisfy the expectations they arouse. Their own semi-effective reforms unleash the forces that overthrow them. Then the liberal reform regime is in turn swept away by the true revolutionaries, who do not want a liberal "bourgeois" revolution like the American revolution, but want to revoke both traditional authority and the half-completed modernization in favor of a populist collective."
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