The trouble with deterrence

By William Katz

"The likeliest Iranian target is Israel. If Iran used nuclear weapons against Israel, the logic goes, the United States would surely retaliate on behalf of its ally. But if you were the general in charge of Iranian strategic planning, you might, with perfect rationality, assume just the opposite. Here is what that general might say to his superiors:

“The United States and Israel are allies, but have no treaty. The Americans would feel honor-bound to strike back against us if we attacked Israel with our new nuclear weapons…but only if the attack were only partially successful, and Israel survived as a nation.

“However, if our attack is completely successful, and Israel were essentially destroyed, what incentive would the U.S. have to strike us? The president of the United States would quickly be told that Israel could not be brought back to life, and that an attack on Iran would inflame the Muslim world. It would produce only more disasters for the United States, and would be seen purely as an act of blind vengeance.

“Besides, the president would also be told, the American retaliation would kill millions of us Iranians. No matter what the provocation, America would become a permanent pariah, certainly in the Islamic world, and probably in Western Europe, which is dominated by America-hating leftist intellectuals.

“So our job, as Iranian soldiers, is to be sure our attack succeeds completely. We can expect denunciations, and all kinds of memorials to Israel, arranged by Zionists in the press and in the American Congress. But we reason that the Americans will do their usual dance - the president will express sorrow and grief, promise aid to survivors, and demand a UN resolution against us…and it will take months for anything to be done."

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